The beat goes on. Yesterday was a drop then sideways churn. Today is up then sideways churn. The SPX maintains the sideways 1540-1565 range for the last month. The bulls need to touch 1565 to ignite the upside acceleration. The HOD is 1561.59 so pay attention to that number. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart so bulls are happy. VIX remains far under 14.70 at 13 and SOX far above 422 at 431 so the bulls are happy. Market leaders XLF and RTH, financials and retail sectors, respectively, are lagging the broad market today. Surprisingly, the TRIN is 1.00 smack-dab neutral today. With the indexes up as they are, the TRIN should be 0.90 or lower. Perhaps the bears are trying to mount a push for this afternoon. Copper is recovering today but JJC is flat. Commodities are stronger.
UTIL prints 501.28 today, a wild upside bull orgy; folks cannot buy perceived safety and dividend stocks fast enough. The Fed's money continues to create a new asset bubble in dividend stocks. The 10-year yield is drifting lower now at 1.91%, equity bear-friendly despite the higher markets today. RUT (small caps) are a hair red now. The most interesting news, in light of the European Bond Yield Summary posted this morning that highlighted Portugal, is Portugal restating and agreeing with the Dutch finance ministers comments from yesterday about Cyprus as a template. What does that tell you especially if you have over 100,000 euro's in Portugal banks? Watch the Portugal yield moving forward. Everyone is focused on the tame Italy and Spain yields (not blowing out), but Portugal may be the sneaky one and the next crisis. The euro is 1.2845. Miners are sold off today but remain attractive moving forward.
Note Added 3/26/13 at 2:52 PM: The SPX came back up to take out today's high listed above at 1561.59. This launches a thrust to over 1562 but price quickly retreated again. The HOD is now at 1562.05 so watch that number. Markets meander sideways. TRIN 1.00. VIX 12.89. SOX 432. The bulls are favored (except for the flat TRIN) and the 8 MA stays above the 34 MA on the 30-minute as well. The 10-year yield is 1.90%. So traders must be spending their lunch money on stocks since there is steady flow into Treasuries at the same time. Another odd day with bonds and stocks both up.
Note Added 3/26/13 at 3:18 PM: Another new intraday high for the SPX with a HOD now at 1562.54. The TRIN dropped to 0.90 providing bull juice. Both the Dow and the SPX are near yesterday's intraday highs but not yet able to punch above. The volume is shameful, only about 55% of a days average expected volume. Traders must have already left for Easter vacation. Other traders are likely choosing to wait and watch until the bank runs occur, now only one day away on Thursday. So the markets float upwards, the path of least resistance, on light volume. Price appears exhausted today and prone to roll over from the minute charts but if the bulls take out yesterday's highs on the Dow and SPX that would provide further juice and whip the bulls into a frenzy. The sideways churn continues. The SPX is moving through 1557-1562 for the last six hours, a five-point range.
