The CPC prints the fourth number in a row in the 0.7's. Complacency rules the markets. It is easily visible day after day in the print and network media. Even analysts that wax worry are truly not worried, they may voice fear but ten minutes later they are buying the market long. The low VIX verifies the low CPC, and the complacency, both serve as fear gauges. The blue arrows show the selloffs over the last five months. The September top was significant. Note that the only true bottom was the mid-November bottom with the print above 1.20. The other bottoms (teal squares) are cheesy; the dip buyers are so anxious to buy the markets they trip over each other to buy even on a tiny market pull back. Utter complacency. Note the red squares, identifying market tops. They are nearly all in the 0.7's or lower as would be expected to signal over-the-top complacency and lack of fear, where the markets turn south. The markets need a lesson in fear.
The last three weeks is a big tease. The SPX is moving sideways and the CPC stays in the 0.7's. This will resolve with a wildly higher move to 1.20+ that will strike fear into all traders and it is likely coming very soon. The multiple low prints now are like a coiled spring that will want to jump higher. Can the CPC drop lower? Of course it can, especially if the SPX takes out the all-time closing high at 1565 tomorrow, that will likely create final euphoria for a blow-off frothy top, the CPC will likely spike lower perhaps under 0.7 indicating total lack of any fear that markets will ever sell off again. But with the current set-up, it would not be surprising to see a strong spike up in CPC, and corresponding strong down move in the broad indexes, at any time. Tomorrow and the next several days are key. What an interesting time with the Easter holiday upon us. The markets could find a way to idle out sideways to finish the shortened week, and then pick things up on Monday, however, things are very ripe right now for a market pull back. A catalyst is likely all that is needed.
The blue arrows show the selloffs over the last five months. Note how the 8 MA moves above the 21 MA each time to signal the all systems go for launch time. Well, do you think the 8/21 MA cross will occur in the days ahead, perhaps as early as tomorrow, and launch the CPC higher to begin a strong market move lower? That is the projection, a market sell off at anytime, traders are far too relaxed and fearless. Stocks and indexes are not attractive on the long side until the 1.20+ prints. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
