The Pennsylvania winds are blowing knocking out service intermittently. Winter continues. Markets are flat this morning after dropping on worse than expected Germany unemployment data about one hour ago. Cyprus banks reopen and depositors are only allowed to withdraw 300 euro's (about $390) and check their balances. There is no check-cashing or other regular bank practices. Transactions out of the country are limited as well so there is now an odd scenario occurring where a euro in Cyprus is actually worth less than a euro in the main continent due to liquidity restrictions. Things become stranger by the day. The bank runs appear orderly, mainly middle-aged and older folks that do not have ATM cards since they are the most cash-strapped. Markets in general continue along with a wait-and-see attitude.
Volume is very low the last couple days only running at about 75% of day's average expected volume, today will likely be less since it is the last day of the week, month (EOM) and quarter (EOQ1), and the Easter holiday weekend begins in only about nine hours. Markets are typically buoyant into a holiday weekend. The full moon yesterday morning created the expected market buoyancy this week. The last week is typically up so this seasonality factor remains in play. The SPX keeps teasing the 1565.15 all-time closing high but falls short. For today, the bulls only need one point of upside, to punch through 1564 and the 1565 will give way in quick order with the SPX moving up into the high 1560's. The bears need to push under 1552 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1553-1563 is sideways action. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart so the bulls remain in control.
Volatility and commodities are important for market direction. Watch VIX 14.65. Watch GTX 4931. Bulls will gather strength if the GTX stays above 4931. Bears will create market weakness if the GTX drops under 4931. Jobless Claims and GDP are released at 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM. Natty Gas Inventories at 10:30 AM. Kansas City Fed 11 AM. 7-Year Auction 1 PM. MOS and BBRY earnings are of interest. The 10-year yield is 1.85% steady after the large drop yesterday (move higher in bond prices). The euro is at 1.28 recovering from the German shock this morning. Considering the expected low volume, and bullish seasonality in place, the bulls should be able to take out the SPX 1565 all-time closing high today. GDP may offer the only surprise aside from the ongoing drama in Europe with Cyprus and Italy.
